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While the Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given our significant declines in key commodity prices, it has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over recent months.
Consequently, local property has become cheaper for many foreigners and expats as our dollar continues to fall. With recent suggestions that our dollar might be nearing the bottom of its decent, international bargain hunters are jumping to secure our comparatively cheaper real estate.
This means even more competition for property, which will have an impact, especially in cities such as Sydney, where many markets are experiencing a distinct shortage of stock and strong demand.
It's not just the relatively cheap prices and high yields available in Australia attracting foreign money. Our currency's movement has changed perceptions of ‘cheapness’, eased fears of possible foreign exchange downside and raised hopes of possible foreign exchange upside.
When the Reserve Bank decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent on 4 February, it saw home loan interest rates drop to a historical low. For the past year and a half the cash rate has been stable as the RBA took time to assess the effects of the substantial easing in policy that had already been put in place and monitored developments in Australia and abroad.
According to the February statement by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, this latest reduction is expected to add some further support to demand, so as to foster sustainable growth and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
He suggested that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year. The fall in energy prices can be expected to offer significant support to consumer spending, but at the same time the decline in the terms of trade is reducing income growth.
Overall, the Bank's assessment is that output growth will probably remain a little below trend for somewhat longer and the rate of unemployment peak a little higher than earlier expected. The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. This assessment has led some economists to predict that there may even be another rate increase before the end of the year.